Insights

I wanted to quickly reach out on the four-year anniversary of the bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 climb more than 118% (WOW!). The following charts tell a strong story. The above shows the S&P 500’s run since October 2022. Note there have been eight blips of 5% or more in these four years and the market has still more than doubled. Market timing is a losing battle so instead of thinking the next bear is coming, make

What goes up must come down, or so the saying goes. The U.S. stock market did not get the memo, however. Third quarter returns were yet again positive for the S&P 500, returning just under 3% for the quarter. This brings the year-to-date return on the broad index to almost 13%. Not too shabby! Bonds, on the other hand, did not have a great quarter. The war with Iran caused oil prices to spike which modestly increased future inflation expectations.

The U.S. stock market continued to defy gravity and power higher through the first six months of 2026 up 10% despite war, surging oil prices, and higher interest rates. This follows the more than 23% annualized return from 2023 to 2025. The 2nd quarter 2026 S&P 500 market performance was the best quarter of the past six years, exhibiting yet another sharp V-shape recovery. War induced the decline earlier this year, almost identical in size to the tariff driven slide

A quick note during this turbulent time in the markets – especially for technology stocks. I cannot say I’m surprised with the current market pullback. During each calendar year there is almost always a double-digit giveback. We never know when it’s going to happen, which is what makes trading so difficult and why we invest for the long term. Short term transactions are a losing battle. At the index level we are barely halfway to a defined correction (10% decline),